The Heat's Dream Of Making NBA History Essentially All Comes Down To Tonight's Game 4

There's no need to really sugarcoat it. If the Miami Heat want to win the NBA title, they have to win tonight. I know, I know, what a revolutionary take, but that's not me talking, that's NBA history talking.

There have been a total of 280 playoff series that at one point were 3-1. The overall record of those instances is 267-13, or a 95.4% winning percentage for the team up in that situation. 

In the NBA Finals, that record is 35-1, for a winning percentage of 97.2%. Unless you're LeBron James, getting down 3-1 in the NBA Finals is pretty much a death wish

Does this Heat team give you the impression that they could win 3 in a row (including 2 in Denver) if they drop Game 4? That's not even a knock against them as a team, that's just the reality of the situation. Nobody does that shit (again, unless you're LeBron). 

So yeah, tonight is pretty massive.

We just saw last Finals what can happen when a team down 2-1 finds a way to win a Game 4. Momentum is such a tricky thing in the Finals that everything can change in an instant. Game 3 was a great example of that. After the Heat won Game 2, it looked like maybe they were going to be able to ride that momentum as they returned to their own building. That obviously did not happen. Now the feeling is that the Nuggets have all the momentum and will really tighten the screws in this series. I certainly know that feeling, but sometimes shit like this happens and everything changes

I'll be honest, I didn't watch that video. Yes, I also triggered myself in order to include it in this blog, but that's just the dedication you need to have in the blog game. While the situations were a little different because the Warriors were heading back home after Game 4, the overall premise is the same. If you can fight off falling down 3-1, all the pressure immediately swings back to the Nuggets and Game 5. If you look at the Finals over the last 12 or so years, dropping Game 3 to go down 2-1 even without homecourt doesn't exactly mean the series is over. Coming back has been done before, with a total of 5 times in the 21st century and 4 times in the last 12 years

2021 Bucks

2016 Cavs

2013 Spurs

2011 Mavs

2006 Heat

1977 Blazers

1972 Knicks

For the Heat to pull this off and tie this series, it starts with something that might very well be unstoppable, which is the Jokic/Murray two man game. In the same way the Nuggets had to adjust to the Heat zone after Game 2 (which they successfully did), the same is now true for how the Heat handles a duo that is averaging an absolutely insane 1.26 points per possession off a Murray/Jokic P&R. 

After Game 3, there was a fantastic thread that broke down everything the Heat did wrong with this coverage that I recommend anyone who is interested in the nitty gritty stuff take a look at. It helps give you an idea of what Spo might try tonight instead

OK, so what do the Heat do? Do they continue to trap/blitz Murray in that P&R? That's quite the gamble when he's sharing the floor with Jokic and it wasn't all that successful in Game 3. Do they bail on switching? We saw time and time again that fighting to go over the screens hurt the Heat, so I wonder if they switch that up and just go under/play drop and force the Nuggets to make their threes. They're shooting just 32.9% in these Finals from deep while making only 8.0 3PM a night, so it may just be a pick-your-poison type of situation. 

Unfortunately for the Heat, they have more to figure out than just defending the Jokic/Murray P&R. Part of what has made their playoff run so impressive is how they've been able to kill teams that leave them open. As this series has gone on, the Nuggets have been better and better at contesting the MIA shooters and running them off the line. That means when they do get their clean looks, they cannot have another situation where they go 3-16 (18.8%) on open 3PA as they did in Game 3. You could make an argument that when you combine the poor open shooting with the fact that the Heat also shot 17-46 (36%) in the paint/restricted area, that it won't take much for them to get back to normal in Game 4. If I'm a Heat fan, I say to myself as long as they can just be normal in these areas, you're still in an OK spot. You don't have to go crazy and shoot 60% from deep on open looks, you just can't be as terrible as you were in Game 3.

It also goes without saying that they need to get something out of the "others". The Heat are cooked if Strus/Vincent/Martin are going to go a combined 7-26 (4-15). Not much else will matter if those three are putting up 26/26% splits. Caleb Martin has been a complete non factor in this series, as has Strus outside of his start to Game 2. Given how crucial all three of those guys were in their previous rounds, the Heat offense can't just be Jimmy/Bam doing all the scoring.

With how back and forth these Finals have been, it wouldn't shock me at all if Spo's adjustments to the Nuggets adjustments were effective and we head back to Denver tied 2-2. There's also this to consider as well

I know the Heat may not have the best record with Foster, but he's The Extender for a reason. I think everyone could tell once we saw Tony Brothers was getting Game 3 that Scott Foster would get Game 4. Given how good these Finals have been and how great the ratings have been, you don't think Adam Silver wants 7 of these things? Scott Foster helps you get there.